Should I Sell Or Rent My House When I PCS From Oahu?

The Real Math, Not a Generic Pros and Cons List
I have this conversation at least twice a month. A military family is sitting across from me, orders in hand, and they’re staring at the biggest financial decision of their PCS: do we sell this house, or do we keep it and rent it out?

And almost every time, they’ve already gotten advice from someone who only tells half the story. Their property manager friend says “hold onto it, you’ll build wealth.” Their buddy who sold last year says “take the equity and run.” Neither of them is wrong, exactly. But neither of them ran the actual numbers.

I do. It’s something I started offering to my clients years ago because I got tired of watching people make six-figure decisions based on bar conversations at Schofield. I call it a rent versus sell analysis, and it’s free. But more importantly, it’s complete. Because the answer isn’t always obvious, and it’s never one-size-fits-all.

Why I Have This Conversation Twice
Here’s something most agents don’t do: I have the rent-or-sell conversation with my clients before they buy. Not just when they’re getting ready to leave.

When a military family is looking at a home in Ewa Beach or Kapolei, I want them to understand what the picture looks like in three years when those orders come. What does the rental market look like for this property? What’s the likely appreciation? What are the carrying costs if they hold it? I’d rather have that conversation on the front end, when they can factor it into the purchase decision, than scramble to figure it out when they’re six weeks from a DITY move.

Then I have the conversation again when PCS orders actually drop. Because the market may have shifted, their equity position may have changed, and their personal situation may look different than it did when they bought. Both conversations matter.

What a Real Rent vs. Sell Analysis Actually Looks Like
Most people think this is a simple comparison: “I could sell for $800,000 and walk away with X, or I could rent it for $3,200 a month.” That’s a start, but it’s barely scratching the surface.

A real analysis compares what you’d net from a sale today against what you’d actually earn (or lose) as a landlord, after every real cost is accounted for. And then it layers in what happens to your equity over time through appreciation.

Here are the numbers most people miss on the rental side:
Property management fees. If you’re PCS’ing off-island, you need a property manager. That’s typically 8% to 10% of monthly rent. On a $3,200/month rental, you’re paying $256 to $320 a month before anything else happens.

General Excise Tax (GET). Hawaii doesn’t have a sales tax. It has GET, and it applies to your rental income at 4.5% on Oahu (4% state plus 0.5% county surcharge). That’s on your gross rental income, not your profit. On $3,200/month, that’s another $144 right off the top.

Maintenance reserves. The general rule of thumb is to set aside 1% of the property value annually for maintenance and repairs. On a $775,000 home, that’s $7,750 a year, or about $646 a month. Some years you’ll spend less. Some years you’ll get hit with a new water heater, a roof repair, or termite treatment, and you’ll blow right past that number.

Vacancy risk. Even in a tight rental market like Oahu, you should budget for at least one month of vacancy per year between tenants. That’s a full month of mortgage, taxes, HOA, and insurance with no income coming in. Military turnover actually helps with demand, but the timing doesn’t always line up perfectly.

Mortgage, taxes, insurance, HOA. These don’t stop because you left the island. And if you bought with a VA loan at a low rate, that’s a significant advantage on the rental side. But if your mortgage payment is $3,100 and your rent is $3,200, you’re not “making $100 a month.” You’re losing money once you factor in everything above.

The Part Everyone Forgets: Appreciation
This is where the conversation gets interesting, and where I push back on the “just sell” crowd.

Over the past 40 years, Hawaii homes have appreciated at an average of over 5% per year. From 2020 to 2025 alone, Oahu homeowners gained an average of roughly $325,000 in equity through price increases. That’s not nothing. That’s generational.

So here’s the scenario I walk through with my clients: let’s say you’re breaking even on your rental each month, or even losing $200 to $300 after all costs. Sounds bad, right? But if your property is appreciating at 5% annually on a $775,000 home, that’s roughly $38,750 a year in equity growth. Your $3,600 annual loss is being offset by nearly $39,000 in appreciation.

When people talk about real estate investing, everyone fixates on cash flow. Cash flow matters. But in a market like Hawaii, appreciation is doing the heavy lifting. That’s the kind of market we’re in, and it would be irresponsible to leave that out of the analysis.

That doesn’t mean you should always hold. It means you need to see the full picture before you decide.

When Selling Makes More Sense
There are absolutely situations where selling is the right call. Here are the ones I see most often:

You need the equity for your next purchase. If you’re PCS’ing somewhere with a higher cost of living and you need that down payment, selling makes sense. Tying up your capital in a rental that barely breaks even while you’re stretching to buy on the mainland isn’t always smart.

You bought at a peak and your equity is thin. If you don’t have much room between what you owe and what you could sell for, the math on holding gets riskier. A market dip, an expensive repair, or an extended vacancy could put you underwater quickly.

You don’t want to be a landlord. This is a completely valid reason. Managing a property from 5,000 miles away, even with a good property manager, takes mental bandwidth. Some people thrive on it. Others hate it. I never talk someone into being a landlord if their gut says no.

Your property doesn’t rent well relative to its value. Some homes are built to sell, not to rent. If your mortgage is $3,500 but the rental market caps you at $2,800, the gap is too wide and no amount of appreciation math makes that pencil out.

When Holding Makes More Sense
And there are just as many scenarios where keeping the property is a clear winner:
You bought at a great rate and your mortgage is well below market rent. If you locked in a VA loan at 2.5% or 3% and your property rents for significantly more than your total monthly costs, you’re in a strong cash flow position. That’s hard to replicate.

You have long-term wealth-building goals. If you’re thinking about retirement income, your kids’ future, or building a portfolio, holding Hawaii real estate through a PCS is one of the most effective ways to build wealth over a military career. I’ve seen families who held through two or three PCS rotations and came back to properties worth $200,000 to $400,000 more than they paid.

You plan to come back to Oahu. A lot of military families do. If there’s even a chance you’ll be stationed here again or want to retire here, selling and rebuying in a few years at higher prices is expensive. Holding avoids selling costs on the way out and buying costs on the way back.

Why I Care About This More Than Most Agents
Here’s the part where I’ll be transparent about why this matters to me personally. Jack and I own multiple investment properties. We’ve also sold properties. We’ve been on both sides of this decision, and we’ve done the math both ways with our own money.

We also own Hawaii Pacific Realty Group, where we manage over 250 rental properties across the island, the majority of them for military families. So I’m not guessing about what it costs to manage a rental. I’m not theorizing about vacancy rates or maintenance surprises. I see it every single day in our portfolio and in the portfolios of the families we serve.

And here’s what that experience has taught me: agents who only do sales will sometimes nudge you toward selling because that’s how they get paid. Agents who only do property management will nudge you toward renting because that’s their recurring revenue. I do both, and I’d rather give you the honest answer, even if it means I don’t get a commission check this month.

What I’d Actually Tell You Over Coffee
If you’re about to PCS from Oahu and you own a home here, don’t make this decision based on a gut feeling or a group chat opinion. Get the real numbers.

I’ll run a rent versus sell analysis for you at no cost. Not a quick napkin calculation. The real thing: what you’d net from a sale after all closing costs, what you’d actually take home each month as a landlord after management fees, GET, insurance, and reserves, and what your equity position looks like over three, five, and ten years based on actual Hawaii appreciation data.

Some of my clients look at the numbers and decide to sell. Some decide to hold. Some decide to hold for two years and then reassess. All of them feel good about the decision because they made it with eyes wide open.

That’s all I want for you. An informed decision, made with real numbers, from someone who’s done this hundreds of times.


Courtney Williams is a Realtor and property management broker on Oahu with over 350 closed transactions. She and her husband Jack own Hawaii Pacific Realty Group, managing 250+ rental properties across the island. If you’re facing a PCS and want a free rent vs. sell analysis, reach out. No pressure, just the real math.